Urban analysis: More than 3M lost employer insurance due to COVID-19 job losses

More than 3 million adults have lost their employer-sponsored insurance plans during the COVID-19 pandemic, a sign that some providers could see changes in their payer mix.

The analysis, released Monday, was conducted by think tank the Urban Institute on behalf of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and finds that many of the losses in employer-sponsored plans were mostly offset by Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program and nongroup coverage.

“People experiencing layoffs are also losing their health insurance coverage at work, but the healthcare safety net strengthened by the [Affordable Care Act] has helped mitigate the impact of those coverage losses,” said Michael Karpman, a senior research associate with the institute, in a statement.

The analysis offers a clue into the extent of changes providers could face in their payer mix.

Medicaid pays less than commercial plan rates, meaning the shift could affect revenues for hospitals and physicians' offices.

RELATED: Gen Zers, millennials feeling impacts of COVID-19 on health coverage, costs: TransUnion

A recent survey of hospital and health system executives found that 70% are expecting to see more Medicaid and self-pay customers.

It remains unclear the full extent of changes to the payer mix due to the COVID-19 pandemic job losses.

An estimate from consulting firm Avalere predicts that nearly 8 million Americans are in danger of losing their employer-based insurance.

Urban’s analysis found the drop in employer coverage did not lead to a major drop in the uninsured rate, which was 11.5% in March and April and 11.9% in September.

The analysis was based on data from Urban’s coronavirus tracking survey, which interviewed 4,007 adults in September.